DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/19 11:46
Grains Mixed at Midday
Soybeans are the midday leader, with corn flat, and wheat lower.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are mixed at midday with the Dow futures down
35 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 10
higher. Energies are lower with crude down 0.70. Livestock trade is mostly
lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold 6.50 higher.
Corn trade is flat to a penny higher at midday with trade pulling back from
an early test of resistance. Ethanol margins are slightly tighter with firmer
corn and softer energy values. Corn basis set back slightly on increased
selling on the futures rally with carry steady. Warmer weather should help to
throttle back livestock feeding coming forward. The weekly export sales were
strong at 1.89 million metric tons, but at midday the market is acting as if
this is old news. On the March chart support is the 50-day at $3.52 we are
right around at midday, with the 20-day at $3.50 below that, and resistance at
the 100-day at $3.58.
Soybean trade is 4 to 7 cents higher with trade closing in on the next round
of resistance with light buying continuing and trade has pulled back from a
test of the 50-day moving average. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 higher and oil is
narrowly mixed. South American weather looks to continue the recent pattern in
the near term with the north and south dry, and the middle wet, with the most
concerns in Argentina. Basis and carry remains mostly sideways. Weekly export
sales were improved at 1.24 million metric tons of beans, 281,000 of meal, and
27,900 of oil. The export wire was quiet again this morning, with only new crop
sales on the wire so far this week. On the March, support is the 10-day and
20-day $9.64 that we have tested this morning and resistance the 50-day at
Wheat trade is flat to 4 cents lower with trade chopping lower going into
the weekend. Warmer weather should be the rule in the near term, but moisture
will likely remain short in the near term for much of the Plains. The dollar
remains below 91 on the index with the trend still lower, with rallies being
sold. The gap between U.S. and Russian origin has narrowed but remains more
favorable to Russia with U.S. export sales remaining weak at 153,000 metric
tons. On the March Kansas City contract, chart support is the lows at $4.10,
with the weekly low of $4.21 becoming nearby support with the 20-day at $4.29
as the first level of resistance with the 50-day at $4.30 above that, which we
tested this morning.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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