DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/21 10:50
Grains Mixed at Midday
Soybeans lead mixed trade at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 260 higher. The dollar
index is flat. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with
crude up $0.20. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals
are weaker with gold 2.60 lower.
Corn is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade chopping around the lower
end of the range with another day of crop touring, and demand speculation after
Poet announced the idling of one plant, and reduced run rates at others.
Weather should continue to remain a short-term non-issue as the crop tour moves
through Iowa and Illinois today with rains and cooler temps short term. Ethanol
margins remain poor with the weekly report showing production down 22,000
barrels per day, and stocks down 561,000 barrels, helping futures to edge a
couple of cents higher. Basis remains mixed overall with harvest getting
closer. On the September nearby chart support is likely the $3.59 low with the
lower Bollinger Band at $3.47 below that with resistance the 10-day at $3.75,
reflecting the break.
Soybean trade is 1 to 3 cents higher with trade again trying to find some
buying support at the lower end of the range. Meal is narrowly mixed and oil is
30 to 40 points higher. Crush margins remain positive overall, with oil staying
towards the upper end of the range. Basis remains flat overall. The Brazilian
ral is trying to firm off the lows again, with local prices an effective
premium to much of the U.S. The weather looks to be a short-term non-issue for
soybeans as well coming forward. The trade situation remains little changed as
well. September chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $8.42, with the
next round up the 10-day $8.65.
Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents lower with range bound trade continuing in quiet
midday action. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is at 74 after a high of 90 cents
last week. The corn/HRW spread is narrower, back to 23 cents. Kansas City wheat
is now back to competitive on the world market trading as well as into feed
rations. Spring wheat harvest should expand with winter wheat just about
wrapped up, with Europe progressing as well. The dollar remains near the upper
end of the range, limiting upside potential. The September Kansas City chart
support is the new low at 3.80 3/4 with the first resistance the 10-day at
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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